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A woman walks by a discount sign at an Abercrombie & Fitch store at a shopping mall in Garden City, New York, U.S. on November 28, 2014. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton/File Photo According to Howard Davidowitz, chairman of Davidowitz & Associates Inc, which has provided consulting and investment banking services for the retail industry since 1981, half the 1,100 U.S. regional malls will close over the next decade. TOO MUCH A surplus of stores are fighting for survival as the ubiquitous discount signs attest, he said. "When there is too much, and we have too much, then the only differentiator is price. That's why they're all going into bankruptcy and closing all these stores," Davidowitz said. The crunch in the CMBS market means holders of non-performing debt, such as pensions or hedge funds, stand to lose money. The mall owners, mostly real estate investment trusts (REITs), have avoided major losses because they can often shed their debt through an easy foreclosure process. "You have a lot of volume that won't be able to refi," said Ann Hamblyfounder and chief executive of 1st Service Solutions, which works with borrowers when CMBS loans need to be restructured. Cumulative losses from mostly 10-year CMBS loans issued in 2005 through 2007 already reach $32.6 billion, a big jump from the average $1.23 billion incurred annually in the prior decade, according to Wells Fargo. The CMBS industry is bracing for losses to spike as loan servicers struggle to extract any value from problematic malls, particularly those based in less affluent areas. In January, for example, investors recouped just 4 percent of a $136 million CMBS loan from 2006 on the Citadel Mall in Colorado Springs, Colorado.

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